Renters Face Inflation on Many Different Fronts
June 25, 2008 – 6:32 pmIn these uncertain times one thing is for sure. You’ll have more trouble finding a place to rent in 2008 because the supply is diminishing proportionate to the increasing number of foreclosures.
More Americans are entering the rental market as millions either sell to avoid mortgage debt or lose their homes to foreclosure through outright default. But increased demand meets with a shorter supply, because before the recent housing crunch most developers and builders concentrated on single family homes instead of apartments and other types of rental construction. And many former apartment buildings, for example, were intentionally converted into privately owned condos, reducing the number of rentals on the market today.
So shopping for a rented or leased home in 2008 can be cause for sticker shock as landlords raise prices and hold a commanding upper hand over tenants. As the market for buying and selling becomes a strong buyer’s market, the rental side of the housing industry reacts in the opposite direction by becoming a seller’s - i.e. landlord’s - paradise.
And inflation is attacking renters not just on the housing front, but on all sides. Groceries are pricier, credit card debt is unwieldy, layoffs are on the rise, and the cost of energy as we enter an energy-consuming summer season is off the charts.
- According to AAA, gas prices have risen more than 10 percent from a month ago and now - at $4 a gallon - they are nearly 30 percent higher than they were a year ago. But to put things into perspective remember that the average price for a gallon of gasoline back in the good old days of 2000 was $1.59.
- Visits to the doctor and prescription medications are much more expensive for 8,500,000 Americans who had some form of health insurance six years ago and now have none whatsoever.
- The Fed has cut rates to the bone to boost mortgage and housing markets. While that has failed to save the economy it has succeeded in making the dollar weaker. Over the past few years the US dollar has lost 45 percent of its value relative to the euro, according to the Federal Reserve.
- As the dollar weakens, it buys less. That drives up inflation even as we endure recessionary economic conditions and a shortage of affordable housing - especially in the rental sector.
For those who can afford to buy a home, the average inflation-adjusted property tax was 13 percent higher in 2005 than it was in 2000, according to data from the Commerce Department. That means that landlords are passing that increase along to their renters, another factor that drives rents higher.
But renting as a national trend is also on the rise. The Center for Housing Policy in Washington, DC compared housing costs in more than 200 cities and discovered that even those workers in the fastest-growing occupations cannot afford to buy a home. Registered nurses, for example, were priced out of homes in more than half of the markets surveyed in the study - a startling revelation considering that they make more money than all the other workers included in the broad study of about half a dozen occupations. Unable to buy, these workers rent, and that adds competition to an already heated market.
Another confirmation of expensive housing comes the Housing Affordability Index, which measures the cost of housing against median family income. The National Association of Realtors calculates the index assuming a 20 percent down payment and a traditional 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.
In 2000, the index indicated that most families had about 30 percent more income than was required to buy a home. In other words they could buy and still have 30 percent of their money left over to sock away as savings for a rainy day. By last year, however, that positive statistic had been almost completely erased - despite the fact that family incomes grew by more than 16 percent during the same timeframe of 2000-2007.
Meanwhile the average homeowner is paying 15 cents on the dollar just to service debt, so any incidental increase in income for those who still have jobs has been essentially cancelled out. The savings rate of the average household dipped into negative territory last year for the first time since the Great Depression, and since then consumer inflation has cut into savings even more drastically. And unemployment is higher than it has been in nearly 20 years.
A glimpse into the poverty demographic offers more insightfully gloomy news:
The official poverty level of $20,614 for a family of four is based on calculations that haven’t changed since the mid-1960s. Yes, it is adjusted for inflation. But 40 years ago the poverty rate in the USA was calculated as slightly half of the median household income. In recent years it was calculated instead as only 28 percent of the median household income - excluding more than 20 percent of the people who would have been considered poverty stricken by the old math.
Many say that’s just a sneaky way to cut funding for the poorest Americans while also keeping taxes low for the wealthiest group. Others say it’s just a generous way to make us feel better about our financial situation and not depressed by our slide into poverty. The number crunchers just haven’t adjusted the definition of poverty - or responsible debt - to keep up with these disingenuous debt-ridden times. So if you’re a renter feeling especially poor in 2008, chances are you really are.
Regardless of the controversy and politics surrounding how policymakers define poverty, most Americans would agree that it is reminiscent of the mathematical approach used by mortgage lenders. Lenders managed to artificially tweak ratios of income and assets to housing costs, and that, in turn, enabled us to buy houses for tens of thousands of dollars more than we could actually afford. We were poor but our mortgage lenders convinced us that we were rich, and now our temporary status upgrades and those low introductory teaser rates that made it happen have both expired.
Today the repercussions are our new reality, and it’s a stark and disconcerting one that looks like it is here for the long and painful haul. Better seek shelter fast - and be prepared to pay more for it as your tardy entrance fee to the world of renting and leasing.
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